Weekly Market Insights: Global Trends and Local Implications
- Global markets tilted further toward monetary easing this week, with the US cutting rates and several central banks either easing or signaling policy flexibility.
- This reinforces expectations that Nigeria could begin a gradual rate-cut cycle in 2026.
- Expectations that global oil supply will exceed demand by about 3.8 mbpd in 2026, according to EIA data, combined with optimism around Russia–Ukraine peace talks, have renewed pressure on crude oil prices as fears of supply disruptions ease.
- As expected last week, naira faced mild pressure from sliding oil prices, partly from maturing securities.
- This week, the naira is expected to face less pressure due to lower liquidity from maturities, and re-issuance of matured OMO.
- Projected N712.68 bn in maturity this week will provide moderate support for system liquidity, though significantly lower than last week’s N1.58trn.
- 10-year bond yields across major economies rose last week, including Nigeria. This appears to reflect expectations of stronger economic growth rather than concerns over fiscal sustainability.
- The equities market improved WoW, with the NGX-ASI up 1.63%, pushing year-to-date performance to 45.18%
