FMDA’s Monthly report-December -2025: Highlights
- Global monetary conditions remain firmly tilted toward easing, with G10 central banks cutting rates by a cumulative 850bps and emerging markets by 3,085bps in 2025.
- This backdrop supports expectations of a gradual rate-cut cycle in Nigeria in 2026, even as the CBN remains cautious in the near term.
- Oil prices face downside risks in 2026 as rising non-OPEC+ supply, led by Brazil, Guyana and Argentina, offsets OPEC+ cuts, while easing geopolitical risks and energy diversification in Europe and Japan further weaken price support.
- On average, the naira depreciated by 0.5% in December and may face heightened pressure in January 2026, as significantly larger liquidity injections enter the system.
- Total projected inflows of about N7.22 trillion in January, with OMO maturities accounting for roughly 74% of the amount, are expected to elevate FX demand and intensify short-term pressure on the exchange rate.
- Looking ahead, this scale of inflow suggests easier money market conditions that could impact interbank rates.
- Strong equity rally lifts NGX ASI by 51.2% in 2025, pushing market capitalisation to N99.4tn.
