Nigeria Inflation Forecast – February 2026
Following the sharp moderation in January (15.10% YoY), our analysis suggests that February headline inflation is expected to ease further to around 13.47% on a year-on-year basis. This continued decline reflects favourable base effects and sustained moderation in underlying price pressures.
Key highlights include:
- Month-on-month pressures are projected to rise modestly to around 0.6%, driven by:
- Moderate increases in domestic food prices (food price index up 0.56% MoM)
- Higher energy costs (pump prices up 3.61% MoM)
- Partially offset by a stronger naira (appreciated 4.24% to N1,356/$)
- Global food and energy prices firmed in February, with the FAO Food Price Index rising 0.9% and Brent crude increasing to $71.1/barrel, exerting mild imported inflation pressures.
- Domestic price movements were mixed, beans, maize, and vegetable oil recorded increase, while tomatoes and yam prices declined during the month.
